Arizona Economic Outlook 2007

Elliott Pollack said that the Valley is expected to create 80,000 jobs in 2006, and 60,000 in 2007. As many as 130,000 people will move to metropolitan Phoenix this year.

On housing, the article quotes RL Brown as saying "I thought we would have seen the housing market stabilize by now. Now home builders have a surplus and no lines at their sales offices. Reality set in for them a month ago."

On commercial, it quotes Pete Bolton of CB Richard Ellis as saying "We need more industrial space. Until we get it, the Valley will lose more jobs as companies go where there's space."

More than 8 million square feet of warehouse space is under construction in metro Phoenix. About 3 million square feet of office space will go up in the Valley this year.

On the retail end, Ron Barness of Retail Brokers, Inc. stated that "it wasn't long ago that high-end East Coast retailers weren't interested in Phoenix. The opposite is true now."

The Valley retail vacancy rate is 5 percent, lower than it's ever been. Currently, 6.6 million square feet of retail space is under construction in the Valley. More...

Here's another article on the Economic Outlook 2007 for Arizona.

Buy Now!

Conventional wisdom says the time is right to take advantage of home incentives...

Contrary to today's popular wisdom to ride out the current market correction in single-family home sales, some experts say: Buy now. Incentives, from swimming pools to cash offerings of up to $100,000, eventually will come to an end.

"Most of the pricing incentives are geared to get closings by the end of the year," said Pat Moroney, president of Standard Pacific Homes. His company is offering $25,000 to $100,000 off new home sales, depending on the house.

"It's a better time to buy now than this same time last year," Moroney said. "A lot of people are waiting to see the bottom of the market and, in my opinion, we're almost there."

The home builder said the excess inventory -- mostly spec houses built when sales were booming in late 2004 and through 2005 -- is being absorbed quickly. Another positive development is that the number of resale listings going on the market is falling.

For the first half of 2006, the Multiple Listing Service reported new listings of 3,000 to 4,000 per month. In July, however, only 1,300 new homes were added to the MLS, and just a little more than 500 were added in August for a total of 46,028 from January through August of this year.

"This is significant in that resale homes on the market appear to be reaching a peak," said Michael Chasse, a home builder specialist with Scottsdale-based Land Advisors Organization. "Hopefully, this trend will continue and we'll reach the tipping point where listings on the market will start coming down to a more reasonable level, which will also establish less sales competition for the new home builders." More...

Slowing Home Resales Spreads Across The Valley

Across the Valley, there were 5,685 recorded resales in August, only slightly more than July's figure but well below the 10,700 resales in August 2005.

Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU, said August signals the last of the robust sales months, because the market typically tails off until the following March.

In Glendale, resales fell to 445 in August, down from 855 in August 2005. Peoria had 280 sales, down from 450 a year ago. Surprise had 225 in August, down from 450 a year ago. In Phoenix, sales fell from 3,050 to 1,760, and Scottsdale saw 390 sales, compared with 780 in August 2005. More...

U.S. August Housing Starts Fell Six Percent

The Commerce Department said U.S. housing starts fell 6.0 percent in August to an annual pace of 1.665 million units, compared to a downwardly revised 1.772 million in July.

Compared to a year earlier, August housing starts were down 19.8 percent from the August 2005 pace of 2.075 million units. Permits for future groundbreaking, an indicator of builder confidence, fell 2.3 percent to a 1.722 million-unit annual pace, the lowest in four years.

The report came a day after an industry survey showed that home builder optimism sank for the eight straight month in September to its lowest level in more than 15-years. More...

West Valley Home Resales Drop

West Valley resales were lower in August 2006 compared with August 2005, according to the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU. But local Realtors aren't sounding the alarm yet.

"Everybody got used to last year, when they were tripling what they were making on their house, and now they are only doubling it," said Judy Bowes, a Glendale Realtor. "It's still is not too bad, as far as I'm concerned."

Sales were down about 50% Valleywide in August 2006 compared with August 2005, and while some areas showed price declines, others had price increases in the median resale price of a home.

"I think it's pretty much the same all over the Valley. I don't think there is much of a difference between the East and West Valley," Bowes added. More...

CamelSquare At 44th

$450M residential resort planned near Camelback and 44th Street...

Phoenix-based M3 companies plan to redevelop a 17-acre site at the northwest corner of Camelback and 44th Street with a boutique hotel, retail, office and residential uses.

The project, called CamelSquare at 44th, would replace the 12-building CamelSquare complex that was built in the 1970's. It will have 950,000 s.f., including three 9-story condominiums.

The residential portion will offer a range of luxury housing, from single-family lofts to single-family homes on 14,000 s.f. lots, with prices ranging from $500,000 to $3 million.

Developers hope to have city zoning approval in February. The project is expected to take five-years to build out. More...

New I-17 Link Is Vital To NW Valley's Growth

NW Valley commuters will have another option to connect to I-17 in the next few years with the scheduled Lone Mountain alignment as part of the Loop 303 freeway.

Construction is scheduled to begin on the norther stretch of the Loop 303 in 2008, according to ADOT.

The first phase, which is scheduled to be done by the end of 2010, will be an interim four-lane divided highway, and the eventual freeway will have five lanes in each direction and be completed in 2015.

The loop is needed because up to 300,000 new homes could be built in the area. More...

Good news for the NW Valley as growth follows transportation corridors.

Home Resale Prices Up In Chandler

Resale Chandler homes rose in August to $308,000, up from $300,500 in July and $289,600 in August 2005. But not all areas of Chandler shared the gains equally.

Gina McKinley, a Chandler real estate agent, said prices have been coming down in East Chandler but seem to be holding their values in south and west Chandler.

But the number of homes sold in Chandler was almost half what it was last summer, with 410 sales in August 2006, compared with 780 in august 2005. Condo sales fell from 100 in August 2005 to 40 in August 2006. More...

Home Sales Remain On Reduced Pace In August

The Phoenix Business Journal reports on the numbers released by the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU.

It states that 14 percent of all recorded sales were priced from $125,000 to $199,999; 44 percent were priced from $200,000 to $299,999; and 36 percent were priced over $300,000.

The townhome/condo sales also dropped to 1,100 units sold. In August 2005, 1,975 townhome/condo units sold. The median price of a townhome/condo also fell from $179,000 in July to $170,000 in August. More...

Condos Near Stadium Offers Buyers Sneak Peak

Construction is almost complete on the 258-unit Park Place condo project at Grand Ave. and Reems Road in Surprise.

The resort-style complex will have walking and jogging trails, a dog park, guest suites, private garages, a clubhouse, concierge service and other amenities.

Prices for the Tuscan-style condos start around $200,000 and go up to $285,000. There will be nine floor plans ranging from 846 to 1,645 square feet.

Prospective buyers will have a chance to snatch up some of the first units at a presale next week.

"This is one of the first resort-style condo communities in Surprise," said Jimmy Foster, president of Blue Tipping Group, the sales and marketing company for the developer, Diversified Real Estate Group. "That's why we're seeing so many buyers show up at our doorstep." More...

Growth Has Surprise In 'Different League'

The city of Surprise now has a population of 100,000, joining the ranks of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Glendale, Peoria, Chandler and Gilbert as a Valley city with at least 100,000 residents.

Surprise's rapidly growing population bolsters its reputation among major retailers, restaurant chains and companies looking to expand. Surprise's commercial properties were worth about $61 million in 2005, a dramatic increase over the $7 million they were worth in 1996 when the city's population was only 11,395.

In the real estate market, Surprise homes have stayed hot while others around the Valley have cooled. The Maricopa County Assessor's Office pegs the median home value in Surprise at $186,000, up from last year's $123,500. More...

What a success story Surprise Arizona has become!

More Scottsdale Custom Homes On The Way

A partnership formed by Taber and Lyle Anderson bought 200-acres at 118th Street and Dynamite Road in Scottsdale and plan to develop about 50 custom homes.

The property is next to The Golf Club Scottsdale and has dramatic views of the golf course and surrounding mountains.

The land has been approved as a subdivision in Scottsdale, said Taber Anderson. It is one of the few parcels left in North Scottsdale.

Anderson is unsure of when the lots will be ready for market. "My wish list would include completing all the site improvements, gate house, entry features, all the perimeter walls along the scenic corridors, the landscaping. My objective would be to get it all done before I start selling anything." More...

Arizona Ranks No. 2 For Job Growth

Arizona held the No. 2 spot for job growth among states in July behind Nevada, according to the most recent Blue Chip Job Growth Update released Tuesday.

Arizona had 2.58 million jobs as of July 2006, up from 2.47 million in July of 2005. That's a 4.75 percent increase, much higher than the national average of 1.3 percent.

Arizona ranked No. 1 in two job categories; trade with a 5.37 percent gain and hospitality with a 5.82 percent increase. More...

Good news for our future real estate market-- as long as we have population and job growth our real estate market will be strong.

Phoenix Is Top Relocation Destination

The Retirement Solutions Foundation, a group run by personal-finance author Jane White, ranked Phoenix number 1 in a new study of best relocation destinations.

The report looked at several factors such as local economic strength, employment, housing affordability and attractions that make a city enjoyable. In fact, we have had so many people contacting us we've decided to add information to our site on Phoenix relocation.

"Affordable real estate attracts workers, especially from obscenely overpriced California," the study says of Phoenix. "The region also has an unusually large number of organizations devoted to helping small businesses."

Also, the report noted high rankings for the Valley from Inc. and Entrepreneur magazines and the Milkin Institute. More...

Mortgage Rates Down For Sixth Week In A Row

Rates on 30-year mortgages fell for a sixth straight week, providing homebuyers with more relief from an earlier rise in rates.

Freddie Mac said Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 6.44 percent this week, down from 6.48 percent last week. That's the lowest level since they averaged 6.43 percent in the first week of April.

"Mortgage rates continued to drift lower this week in large part because of the cooling in the housing market and in consumer confidence, thus giving financial markets reason to believe that economic growth will moderate and inflation will remain in check," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.14 percent, down from 6.18 percent, and rates on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 6.11 percent, down from 6.14 percent last week. More...

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Marley Park Filling Up Fast

Of the 499 homes released so far in the first phase of Marley Park in Surprise, 98 percent have been sold.

The 956-acre master-planned community is being developed by DMB Associates, who also built DC Ranch in Scottsdale and Power Ranch in Gilbert, and offers buyers several architectural styles of homes, such as Spanish, Monterey, Craftsman, Bungalow, Cottage and others. Many models feature front porches, in addition to garages that face the side or back of homes.

By the end of the year, attached housing will also be available in Marley Park with the 157-unit Frank Residential development featuring lofts, carriage houses and townhomes.

Marley Park's theme is diverse neighborhoods with a close community feel.

At build-out between 2010 and 2013, Marley Park will contain 3,500 homes. More...